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Advanced Soccer Stats for Betting

Advanced statistics in soccer are metrics that go beyond the traditional forms of quantifying a game, such as goals, assists, and possession, and attempt to describe the game in more detail Often utilizing statistical methods. Advanced stats have started to make their way into the media slowly, for example, the rise of XG - expected goals. Below you will find the most useful of these advanced metrics for soccer in detailed explanation and examples.


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Key Takeaways

  • Advanced soccer stats are detailed statistics that measure niche aspects of the game.
  • Expected goals are the number of goals a team was expected to score based on the quality of the shots they generated.
  • XG chain takes the XG of each position of the ball on its way in a possession and sums this value to attribute a quality metric to the possession of the team.
  • The direct speed of a team is how fast a team moves the ball upfield.
  • Passes Allowed per Defensive Action (PPDA) calculates the number of passes the opposing team takes per a team's defensive sequence.
  • Player p90 is an advancement of averages per game that does not account for how many minutes a player played per game.
Soccer Stat Infographic
Soccer Stat Infographic created by Sports Loci

xG - Expected Goals

Expected goals are the number of goals a team was expected to score based on the quality of the shots they generated. Expected goals do not care if the ball hit the back of the net or if it was even on-target. Rather, expected goals look at a number of factors such as position, angle, foot of a player, type of shot (header, volley, etc.), and gives each shot on the pitch a value corresponding to the probability of scoring from that position. These values are aggregated for teams over the course of a game and a season. A team over performs if their goal total exceeds their expected goal total and underperforms if it is below their XG total. XG is a valuable resource in evaluating the danger generation of a team and the quality of their shots.




In game xG chain example
xG Chain example created by KU Leuven


xG Chain

XG Chain is an alternative to possession stats do not account for quality of possession a only count the time on ball, leaving teams that play counter attacking football behind. XG chain takes the XG of each position of the ball on its way in a possession and sums this value to attribute a quality metric to the possession of the team.



Direct Speed

The direct speed of a team is how fast a team moves the ball upfield. It is calculated by dividing the distance traveled by the team over the time the team traveled this distance.



Passes Allowed per Defensive Action (PPDA)

Passes Allowed per Defensive Action (PPDA) are exactly what the name suggests. It calculates the number of passes the opposing team takes per a team's defensive sequence. It is a good metric to measure how much playing with the ball is allowed by an opponent. This number will be high for counterattacking teams that allow teams to play and prefer to sit back.



Counter Press Recoveries

A defensive metric that measures the number of times a team wins back the ball within 5 seconds of losing possession. It measures the counter-press effectiveness of a team. Klopp's Liverpool is a team that excels in this metric and wins the ball back very quickly if they lose it—suffocating teams higher up the pitch.



Player p90

Player p90 is an advancement of averages per game that does not account for how many minutes a player played per game. Rather p90 takes the average of a stat for a player for each 90 minute period played. p90 is calculated as follows: stat / (minutes played / 90)



Other Notable Stats
xT - Expected Threat
Momentum Chart
xA - Expected Assists
Distance Covered per Possession